June 28, 2009
Early thoughts on C-USA football
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RADICAL, EARTH-SHAKING change is coming to Conference USA.

OK, I was pulling your chain. After the 2005 realignment, all changes are small by comparison. The following is downright minuscule.

We're talking about the preseason polls in football and men's basketball. Yeah, heavy stuff, right?

Anyway, as the league's members brainstormed over cost-cutting measures in the latest spring meeting, the coaches quietly decided to discontinue their preseason survey.

 No big loss, as the football poll had its "3 yards and a cloud of dust" tendencies. After the 2005 season, the coaches boldly picked the previous year's division champs to repeat every year. As you know, it never happened, and it says here it never will.

The poll void will be filled by your lovable representatives of what's left of the print media, and the football survey will be released on July 27 or thereabouts. For the first time since Marshall's MAC days, I'm going to have to mull this over in my Thinking Chair, with more than three clues at my disposal.

I don't have a firm top six on each side, but I do have some guidelines. Here goes ...

  • Houston will win the West.
  • That's the easiest pick I have. Phil Steele's preview cops out and picks Houston, Tulsa and Texas-El Paso as co-No. 1s, but I simply can't see it.

    Forget about Houston's aberration of a 37-23 loss at Marshall last year. Quarterback Case Keenum won the league's Offensive Player of the Year award, and should compete for the 2009 MVP award (yes, they are separate). His skill players are back, as are the center and guards. Coach Kevin Sumlin may have filled the tackle spots well, with a Kansas transfer and a highly touted juco import.

    After the Marshall debacle, the Cougars resumed their scoring spree, finishing with a 40.6-point average. These guys are so loaded on offense, it's tough to care about their defense.

    Tulsa won't collapse. Much of its defense is back, and by C-USA West standards it was pretty good. Many of the skill players return on offense, as well, and the quarterback position remains in good hands with 6-foot-3, 242-pounder (and still mobile) Jacob Bower.

    The big, big question is how the Golden Hurricane copes with the loss of co-offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn, who went to Auburn. Herb Hand, the former West Virginia assistant, runs the show.

    UTEP showed flashes of brilliance with quarterback Trevor Vittatoe, and seems to have the league's most favorable schedule. The defense, which was riddled with injuries and allowed 70 points to Tulsa in three quarters, is an obvious question.

    But the Miners' penchant for poor finishes is another one. They are 0-8 in the final two games since joining C-USA, and are 3-17 after Oct. 17 in the last three years.

  • UTEP will be tough to slot, but Southern Methodist might be tougher.
  • Keep a nervous eye on the Mustangs, who play at Marshall in the 11th game. Bo Levi Mitchell threw most of his 23 interceptions early in 2008, as new coach June Jones tossed the true freshman to the wolves. Mitchell will be a bunch better, and he has receivers to work with.

    If a sieve-like defense of the past two seasons improves at all, do not be surprised if the Mustangs go from 1-11 to the Hawaii Bowl.

  • Tulane and Rice are getting no respect here.
  • It will be miraculous for the Owls, who lost all their offensive weaponry, not to collapse. The Green Wave would have been 0-8 in the league last year if it didn't play SMU in September.

  • Almost the entire planet will predict Southern Mississippi or defending champ East Carolina to win the East. The question is, in which order? 
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